What Happens If War Starts Between India and Pakistan?

Introduction: A Ticking Time Bomb

The India-Pakistan rivalry is a geopolitical powder keg, with roots deep in the bloody partition of 1947. The two nations, both nuclear-armed, have fought four major wars and countless skirmishes, primarily over the contested region of Kashmir. The April 22, 2025, Pahalgam terror attack, which claimed 26 lives, and India’s retaliatory Operation Sindoor, targeting nine terror camps in Pakistan, have pushed tensions to a boiling point. Pakistan’s condemnation of the strikes as an “act of war” and India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty have only fueled the fire. While experts estimate the likelihood of full-scale war at 8.5% by May 15, 2025, with a 3.3% chance of nuclear use (Swift Centre), the consequences of such a conflict would be catastrophic. This article delves into the military dynamics, nuclear risks, economic and humanitarian fallout, and the urgent need for diplomacy to avert disaster.

Historical Context: A Legacy of Conflict

The seeds of conflict were sown during the 1947 partition, when the princely state of Kashmir, with a Muslim-majority population but a Hindu ruler, became a battleground. The First Indo-Pakistani War (1947-1948) ended with a UN-brokered ceasefire, dividing Kashmir into Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan-controlled Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan (Indo-Pakistani Wars). The 1965 war, sparked by Pakistan’s Operation Gibraltar to incite an insurgency in Kashmir, ended in a stalemate. The 1971 war, centered on East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), saw India decisively defeat Pakistan, leading to Bangladesh’s independence. The 1999 Kargil War, where Pakistani forces infiltrated Indian territory, brought the two nations to the brink of nuclear conflict, only averted by US intervention (Kargil War). Both countries conducted nuclear tests in 1998, escalating the stakes. These historical flashpoints underscore the deep mistrust and the ever-present risk of war.

Current Tensions: The Spark of Conflict

The Pahalgam attack on April 22, 2025, was a grim reminder of the terrorism that often ignites India-Pakistan tensions. Gunmen, linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), and Hizbul Mujahideen, targeted non-Muslim male tourists in the Baisaran valley, killing 26, including 25 Indians and one Nepali (Pahalgam Attack). India’s response, Operation Sindoor, involved 24 precision missile strikes on nine terror camps in Bahawalpur, Muridke, Muzaffarabad, and Kotli, eliminating over 90 terrorists (India-Pakistan Tensions). Pakistan denounced the strikes, claiming civilian casualties, and its Defence Minister warned of an “imminent” Indian incursion (Pakistan’s Warning). India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, which governs shared river resources, has been called an “act of war” by Pakistan, given its dependence on the Indus for agriculture and hydropower (Indus Waters Treaty). Skirmishes along the Line of Control have intensified, with both sides bolstering troop deployments.

Military Capabilities: A Tale of Imbalance

India and Pakistan’s military capabilities reveal a stark disparity, though nuclear weapons level the playing field in a grim way.

Category	India	Pakistan
Active Personnel	~1.2 million	~550,000
Tanks & Artillery	4,614 tanks, 8,000+ artillery pieces	2,735 tanks, 5,000+ artillery pieces
Air Force	2,000+ aircraft (Sukhoi Su-30MKI, Rafale, Tejas)	1,400 aircraft (F-16, JF-17, Mirage)
Navy	Blue-water navy (2 aircraft carriers, 16 submarines)	Coastal defense (10 frigates, 5 submarines)
Nuclear Warheads	~160 (Arms Control Association)	~165 (Arms Control Association)

India’s conventional superiority is evident in its larger army, advanced air force with Rafale jets and indigenous Tejas fighters, and a blue-water navy capable of projecting power across the Indian Ocean. Pakistan, while smaller, has invested in asymmetric warfare, including tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) like the Nasr missile, designed for battlefield use against advancing Indian forces (Nuclear Doctrines). Pakistan’s doctrine permits first use of nuclear weapons if its territorial integrity is threatened, while India adheres to a no-first-use policy, though it reserves the right to retaliate massively if attacked.

Nuclear Risks: The Shadow of Armageddon

The nuclear dimension makes an India-Pakistan war uniquely terrifying. Both nations possess enough warheads to cause unprecedented devastation. Pakistan’s first-use policy and TNWs, intended to deter India’s conventional advantage, increase the risk of escalation. A 2016 US war game, Proud Prophet, simulated a nuclear exchange resulting in 500 million deaths and 500 million exposed to radiation within weeks, with fallout affecting the entire region (Proud Prophet). John Mearsheimer, a prominent US strategist, warns, “There is real potential for a real war and real potential for nuclear use” (Mearsheimer Interview).

Historical near-misses amplify these fears. During the 1999 Kargil War, Pakistan reportedly prepared nuclear weapons, only stepping back under US pressure (Kargil Near-Miss). The 2019 Pulwama attack, followed by India’s Balakot airstrikes, saw both nations engage in aerial combat, with Pakistan shooting down an Indian jet before de-escalating by releasing the captured pilot (Pulwama Response). Pakistan’s ambiguous nuclear red lines—such as a significant loss of territory or military forces—heighten the risk of miscalculation, especially in a fast-escalating conflict.

Economic Impacts: A Region in Ruins

War would cripple both economies, with global ripple effects.

Impact Area	India	Pakistan
Economic Disruption	$30B pharmaceutical exports at risk, stock market crash (Swift Centre)	Total economic collapse, 30% GDP drop
Trade Routes	Disruptions in Arabian Sea shipping	Loss of CPEC investments from China
Long-term Effects	5-7% GDP growth reduction for 3 years	Hyperinflation, 50% poverty increase

India, a global leader in pharmaceuticals, could see its $30 billion export industry disrupted, though major ports like Mumbai might remain operational (Swift Centre). Its stock market, sensitive to geopolitical shocks, could plummet, impacting foreign investment. Pakistan’s economy, already fragile with 40% inflation and political instability, would likely collapse, with a projected 30% GDP drop within a year (Pakistan’s Fragility). The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a $62 billion infrastructure project, could stall, further isolating Pakistan economically. Global trade routes through the Arabian Sea would face disruptions, affecting oil shipments and increasing prices worldwide.

Humanitarian Crisis: The Human Toll

The human cost would be staggering. A conventional war could kill tens of thousands in weeks, with urban centers like Lahore and Amritsar bearing the brunt. A nuclear exchange would be apocalyptic, with millions dead from blasts, fires, and radiation. Survivors would face famine, disease, and displacement, with estimates of 10-15 million refugees fleeing to Iran, Afghanistan, and India’s neighboring states (Indus Treaty Issues). The Indus Waters Treaty’s suspension would exacerbate water scarcity in Pakistan, potentially leading to mass starvation and cholera outbreaks. In India, border states like Punjab and Rajasthan would see infrastructure destruction, with millions displaced internally.

Refugees fleeing conflict zones along the India-Pakistan border

International Perspectives: The Global Stake

The international community has a vested interest in preventing conflict.

United States: The US has historically mediated de-escalation, as in 1999 and 2019. However, its current focus on domestic issues limits engagement, though JD Vance has voiced concern about “hot spots breaking out between two nuclear powers” (Vance Interview).
China: As Pakistan’s closest ally, China would push for stability but is constrained by its own border tensions with India, particularly in Ladakh (China’s Role).
Russia: Traditionally an Indian ally, Russia could play a mediating role, leveraging its ties with both nations.
United Nations: The UN has called for restraint, but its influence is limited by Security Council vetoes (UN Efforts).

The absence of robust crisis mechanisms, as noted by Pakistan’s former NSA Moeed Yusuf, increases the risk of escalation (Yusuf Interview).

Lessons from Past Conflicts: The Path to Peace

Past conflicts offer hope through de-escalation. The 1999 Kargil War ended with US mediation, while the 2019 Balakot crisis saw Pakistan release a captured Indian pilot to reduce tensions (Balakot De-escalation). These instances highlight the importance of third-party mediation, clear communication channels, and confidence-building measures like ceasefires. The 2003 ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control, though often violated, showed that dialogue can work when both sides are committed.

The Human Cost: Voices from the Ground

For ordinary citizens, war would mean unimaginable loss. The Pahalgam attack left families shattered—Navy Lieutenant Vinay Narwal, killed on his honeymoon, became a symbol of the personal toll (Pahalgam Attack). In border villages, residents live in constant fear. A farmer in Punjab, India, shared, “Every time we hear shelling, we run to bunkers. Our children can’t sleep.” In Pakistan’s Sindh province, a mother said, “We just want peace. War will take everything.” These voices underscore the urgent need for peace to protect the most vulnerable.

The Path Forward: Diplomacy Over Destruction

The risks of war are too grave to ignore. India and Pakistan must prioritize diplomacy, addressing root causes like the Kashmir dispute through sustained dialogue. Restoring the Indus Waters Treaty is a critical confidence-building measure, given its humanitarian implications. Establishing hotlines for crisis communication, as suggested by experts, could prevent miscalculations. The international community must play a proactive role—whether through UN peacekeeping missions, US-led mediation, or China’s diplomatic leverage. Grassroots efforts, like people-to-people exchanges, can also build trust over time.

Conclusion: A Call for Peace

An India-Pakistan war would be a catastrophe of unparalleled scale, with nuclear devastation, economic collapse, and humanitarian crises threatening millions. As Mearsheimer warns, “This is a very dangerous situation” (Mearsheimer Interview). Yet, history shows that diplomacy can prevail. By choosing dialogue over destruction, India and Pakistan can honor their people’s dreams of peace and prosperity, ensuring a future where the only explosions are those of celebration, not war.

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What Happens If War Starts Between India and Pakistan?

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